The Frontrunners of the Western Balkans: A Comparative Literature Review of EU Accession in Montenegro and Albania

 Aseel Azizieh

Study: July 2026

 

The Frontrunners of the Western Balkans: A Comparative Literature Review of EU Accession in Montenegro and Albania 

Introduction 

The European Union’s enlargement policy has entered a new phase of momentum. After years of stagnation often described as “enlargement fatigue,” the geopolitical shocks of recent years have revived the prospect of integrating the Western Balkans into the Union. Among the six countries of the region, Montenegro and Albania have emerged as the undisputed frontrunners, leading the pack of the EU hopefuls (European Commission, 2025). As the European Commission’s 2025 Enlargement Package confirms, Montenegro aims to conclude its accession negotiations by the end of 2026, while Albania targets 2027 (European Commission, 2025).

This essay provides a comparative literature review of EU accession in Montenegro and Albania. It examines how far these two countries meet the Copenhagen Criteria, the political, economic, and legal conditions for EU membership established by the European Council in 1993. The essay draws on scholarly literature, official EU enlargement progress reports,World Bank data, and analysis from various sources to assess their strengths and weaknesses. 

Why focus on Montenegro and Albania? As Viola (2024, p. 106) notes, both countries have been considered “frontrunners” expected to become EU members in a relatively short period. Montenegro gained candidate status in December 2010 and opened accession negotiations in June 2012, while Albania was granted candidate status in June 2014 and formally opened negotiations in July 2022 (European Commission, 2025). Their progress offers valuable lessons for understanding the challenges and opportunities of European Union enlargement in the Western Balkans.

The Copenhagen Criteria: A framework for Assessment 

The Copenhagen Criteria, established by the European Council in 1993, from the foundation of EU accession. As the European Commission explains on its official portal, these criteria ensure that a country fulfils the EU’s political, economic, and legal requirements. They consist of three main pillars: 

First, political criteria require stable institutions guaranteeing democracy, the rule of law, human rights, and respect for and protection of minorities. Second, economic criteria demand a functioning market economy capable of withstanding competitive pressure and market forces within the Union. Third, the acquis criteria require the ability to take on the obligations of membership, including adherence to the aims of political, economic, and monetary union. Since 2020, the EU acquis has been divided into 35 chapters for negotiation purposes. Candidate countries must demonstrate alignment across these chapters, with particular emphasis on the “fundamentals “ cluster covering rule of law, economic criteria, and public administration reform (European Commission, 2025).

As Koliias, Messis, Stergiou and Zouboulakis (2024, p. 3) observe, countries aspiring to join the EU are expected during the pre-accession phases to adapt and implement the acquis in areas that include the quality of governance and the functioning of national institutions. The quality of governance is a particularly critical dimension, as it directly affects a country’s ability to meet both the political and economic criteria. 

A 2021 CEPS comparative analysis found that for the Western Balkans as a group, there is a noticeable gap between the top performers-Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia- and the others, with Albania following, and Bosnia and Kosovo lagging significantly (Emerson, Blockmans, Lazarevic &Subotic, 3021, p. 18). However, the same analysis noted that Serbia and Montenegro have experienced a decline in performance in recent years  (Emerson, Blockmans, Lazarevic &Subotic, 3021, p. 19). This suggests that Montenegro’s frontrunner status, while deserved, is not guaranteed and requires sustained effort.

A comprehensive study by Lymonova and Kliuchnuk (2025, p. 1) systematized the economic criteria into five core characteristics: quality of economic governance, macroeconomic stability, functioning of goods and services markets, functioning of the financial market, and functioning of the labour market. Their findings show that Montenegro, Georgia, and Serbia lead in most categories among nine EU candidate countries (Lymonova & Kliuchnyk, 2025, p. 4).

Montenegro: The Frontrunner’s Progress and Persistent Challenges 

Political Criteria: Strengths and Weaknesses 

Montenegro has been widely recognized as The leading candidate among the Western Balkan countries (European Commission, 2025). According to the European Commission’s 2025 report, Montenegro has demonstrated “a continued political commitment “ and “has produced tangible results in accomplishing required reforms and moving the country forward on its EU accession path “(European Commission, 2025). The European Parliament (2025) also endorsed Montenegro’s progress, describing the country as the frontrunner and welcoming its ambition to conclude negotiations by the end of 2026.

In the area of rule of law, which is the most challenging aspect of the political criteria, Montenegro has made significant but incomplete progress. The commission’s assessment indicates that Montenegro is moderately prepared in this area. However, as the 2025 enlargement report highlights, the county’s democratic institutions “remain fragile and vulnerable to crisis and potential institutional and blockages” (European Commission, 2025). A wiiw study (2025, p. 12)  Areas on which fulfilment of the economic Copenhagen criteria should focus in the pre- and post-accession phase - Labour markets and social indicators further confirms that Montenegro faces “entrenched governance weaknesses “ around judicial independence, public procurement, and state capture risks. Prime Minister Milojko Spajić (2025) acknowledged these challenges while emphasizing that “the reforms we are implementing directly improve the quality of life of our citizens.”

Anti-corruption efforts: represent a particular weakness. The Commission notes that Montenegro needs to improve its track record in terms of criminal prosecutions and convictions in corruption cases, particularly at a high level, as well as the overall efficiency of the judiciary, including the reduction of case backlogs ( European Commission, 2025). Mirkovic (2025, p. 4) notes that the European commission’s Rule of Law Report 2025 points to “limited but measurable progress “ in the normative and institutional strengthening of the judiciary and anti-corruption system, with persistent structural weaknesses, including “ the low level of perceived independence of the judiciary, the low number of final judgments and limited administrative capacity.”

On media freedom and freedom of expression, the Commission assessed that Montenegro is moderately prepared, with some made in implementing reform (European commission, 2025). However, the report emphasised that Montenegro needs to continue consistently in limiting all media related laws and further align them with the European Union acquis, ensuring the prom appointment of members to the council Agency for Audiovisual Media Services (European Commission, 2025). Mirkovic (2025, p. 5) adds that progress in the area of media remains limited due to “delays in staffing regulatory buddies, and sufficient transparency of media ownership and financing.”

Visa policy alignment: is another concern. The Commission noted that Montenegro’s visa policy is not fully aligned with that of the EU and that the country should terminate visa-free regime agreements with countries whose nationals require visas to enter the EU (European commission, 2025) . Prime Minister Spajić (2025) acknowledged this as “one such example of a difficult political decision which, after necessary delays,  we must take on this path, despite the challenges economic efforts of aligning our visa regime with that of the EU.”

External threats and political polarization represent additional challenges. David McAllister, Chair of the European Parliament’s Committee on Foreign Affairs, noted that “strong external threats lead to polarization in Montenegro,” specifically monitoring that “Russia and Serbia have established media channels to achieve their goals” and that “ certain media outlets portray Montenegro as a second Serbian state, they legitimize the Kremlin’s policies and incite anti-NATO sentiment “ (McAllister, 2026).

Economic criteria A Tourism  Dependent Economy

The economist criteria pose a distinct challenge for Montenegro. According to the.wiiw study (2025), Montenegro faces significant economic shortcomings that sound in the way of European Union accession. The country’s economy is heavily dependent on tourism, which makes it vulnerable to external trucks.

The World Bank’s Western Balkans Regular Economic Report (2025) projects Montenegro’s economic growth at 3.3% in 2025, 3.2% in 2026, and 3.2% in 2027. However, the report also highlights persistent challenges, including a labor market paradox where “labor shortages persist in certain sectors alongside high unemployment rate- above 10%- and low labor force participation, which remains below 55%” (World Bank, 2025).

However, the General Affairs Council (2024) expressed optimism regarding Montenegro’s economic alignment. In December 20 25 conclusions, cancel, approved the significant improvement made by Montenegro in the area of the role of low, which is a prerequisite for economic stability. The county’s strategic commitment to the European project as noted by Parliament (2025)  provides a foundation for continued economic reform. Prime Minister Spajić (2025) emphasized that “the Government remains focused on creating a stable and predictable environment, strengthening institutions and trust, so Montenegro becomes a credible partner for European investors.”

Meeting the Acquis Criteria 

Montenegro has made remarkable progress in closing negotiation chapters, by the end of 2025, Montenegro had closed a total all 12 chapters, with six chapters closed during 2025 alone ( Mirkovic, 2025). These included chapter 5 on company law, Chapter 11 on agriculture and rural development, and chapter 13 on fisheries (Mirkovic, 2025). Chapter 5 is particularly significant as it is the first chapter close from the fundamentals cluster. 

According to the European commission 2025 report “good or very good progress had been made and almost half of the negotiation chapters with the emphasis on the level of preparedness in most areas reaching a good or very good level “ (Mirkovic, 2025). The Prime Minister confirmed “the realistic goal of closing all negotiation chapters by the end of 2026, which would create the conditions for Montenegro to be ready for EU membership in 2028” (Mirkovic, 2025). However, Malkova (2025) noted that the commission stresses that further progress depends on the consistent implementation of adapted legislation, strengthening, administrative capacity and achieving tangible results, in particular in the areas of the rule of law and economic criteria.”

The EU's revised enlargement methodology, adopted in 2020, places greater emphasis  on the fundamentals cluster. As Schimmelfennig (2024, p. 85) argues, the EU’s recent shift from “transformative enlargement “ to “geopolitical enlargement “ has accelerated the process but created trade-offs between speed and standards. For Montenegro, this means that while geopolitical pressures facilitate faster accession, the quality of reforms, particularly in the rule of law area, must not be compromised. 

Albania: Rapid Progress Amidst Persistent Challenges 

Political Criteria: Progress and Polarisation 

Albania’s accession process has accelerated significantly in recent years. After being granted candidate status in June 2014 and opening accession negotiations in July 2022, the country aims to conclude negotiations by the end of 2027 (European Commission, 2025). According to the European Commission’s 2025 report, Albania has made significant progress in several areas, including justice reform, the fight against organized crime and the government’s commitment to European integration (European Commission, 2025). The European Parliament (2025) also noted Albania’s rapid progress in recent years. Justice reform represents one of Albania’s greatest strengths. The country undertook a comprehensive vetting process to cleanse the judiciary of corrupt judges and prosecutors. This reform has been praised by the commission and has contributed to building trust in the judicial system (European commission, 2025). However, the Commission stresses that the implementation of reform and the consolidation of Albania's democratic system remain fundamental conditions (European Commission, 2025). 

Political polarization is a significant weakness, the 2025 enlargement report identify political polarization, and institutional dialogue as area of concern (European commission, 2025) this is consistent with Viola’s (2024,p.110) analysis, which highlight the role of political opposition and n Albania’s democratic machinery. According to Viola (2024, p. 111), the European Commission has evaluated specific phenomena concerning the opposition in Albania, raising questions about whether the status of opposition has been a pivotal element for the democratic system or one of its weak points.

David McAllister (2026) expressed concern about political polarization in Albania during his visit,stating that “there is no place for the violent protests in a functioning democracy“ and emphasizing that “ most of you need to engage in a dialogue.” he added that “ there is still a lot of work to do” regarding political dialogue, and institutional cooperation. 

Correction and organized crime remain the persistent challenges. Why Albania has made progress. The commission emphasizes that the fight against corruption and organized crime requires continued attention (European commission, 2025). 

Economic Criteria: Growth and Structural Weaknesses 

Albania’s economic performance has shown improvement, but structural weaknesses remain. The country has made progress in macroeconomic stability, with GDP growth averaging 3.7% in 2025 (World Bank, 2025). The World Bank projects growth at 3.5% in both 2026 and 2027 (World Bank, 2025).

However, the wiiw study (2025) indicates that all Western Balkan candidate countries, including Albania, face significant economic and institutional shortcomings that stand in the way of EU accession, the World Bank (2025) notes that “in 2025, economic growth is the Western Balkans slowed as inflation dampened consumption and heightened uncertainty constrained trade and investment.”

Albania has started implementing venue, Western Balkans Growth Plan across four pillars: gradual  integration in the European Union, single market, regional economic integration, fundamental reform, and increased financial support (European commission, 2025). Under the reform and growth framework Albania approved eight reform agendas, covering improvements in the business environment, human capital digitization energy and a green transition and fundamental rights and the role of law (European Commission, 2025).

Meeting the Acquis Criteria 

Albania’s negotiating process has advanced at an “unprecedented “ pace. The country opened 28 chapters within a year, and the remaining five chapters are expected to be opened before the end of 2025. This represents a significant acceleration compared to earlier expectations. The European Commission’s 2025 report acknowledges that Albania’s progress in the accession negotiations process since October 2024 has been at an “unprecedented” pace. The European Parliament (2025) noted Albania’s rapid progress in recent years. 

The EU’s revised enlargement methodology, which clusters the 35 chapters into six thematic clusters, provides a framework for Albania’s progress. The Huntingtons cluster covers rule of law, justice, and anticorruption and is particularly relevant. As Viola (2024, p. 112) notes, the debates on the role of political opposition develop within this framework, in order to foster clear assessments in reference to the political system. 

The 2025 Progress Report assesses that Albania has made progress and key areas, the rule of life, public administration, elections, and you shall reform (European commission, 2025). Albania also maintained full alignment with the European Union's common foreign and security policy, adopting the EU position, including detective measures and sanctions against Russia (European commission, 2025).

Competitive assessment Montenegro vs. Albania

Overall progress

Both Montenegro and Albania have made significant progress towards EU membership, but Montenegro remains ahead. As the 2025 European commission report confirmed, Montenegro is the frontrunner, aiming to conclude negotiations by the end 2026 find Albania target 2027 (European commission, 2025). Parliament’s (2025) strongest endorsement was reserved for Montenegro, which was described as the frontrunner among candidate countries.

McAllister (2026) confirmed this assessment stating that “Montenegro and Albania are recognized by European Union officials as The most advanced candidate countries in the integration process.” However he also emphasized that “ the focus should be on the implementation of reform” and that “ the adoption of the law alone is not enough, referrals must be implemented” (McAllister, 2026).

The CEPS analysis from 2021 provides a useful comparison: the Western Balkans states exhibit strong performance on political aspects, whereas countries with Association Agreements outperform in economic criteria (Emerson, Blockmans, Kazarvevic & Subotic, 2021, p. 17). Within the Balkans, there is a noticeable gap between the top three performers, Montenegro North Macedonia and Serbia followed by Albania with Bosnia and Kosovo lagging (Emerson, Blockmans, Kazarvevic & Subotic, 2021, p. 18). However, recent developments have seen Serbia and Montenegro experiencing a decline in performance and why North Macedonia and Albania are making improvement (Emerson, Blockmans, Kazarvevic & Subotic, 2021, p. 19).

Political criteria

Montenegro is prepared across political criteria, with drink and political commitment and institutional stability. Also democratic institutions remain fragile (European Commission, 2025). Albania has made significant progress in justice reform and anti-organizing crime efforts but l struggles with political polarization and media freedom (European Commission, 2025) . 

The rule of law remains a challenge for both countries for Montenegro; the commission emphasizes the need for concrete results of corruption prosecution and efficient Judiciary (European Commission, 2025) . For Albania the fight against corruption required continued attention (European Commission, 2025). The wiiw study (2025) flags both countries for governance challenges around judicial independence, public procurement, and state capture risks.

Economic Criteria 

Montenegro’s economy is tourism dependent with high public debt (124%of GDP) (wiiw, 2025) while Albania has made progress in macroeconomy stability but faces structural weaknesses (World Bank, 2025). Most countries must address economic shortcomings to meet the Copenhagen criteria. As the wiiw study (2025) notes candidate countries must narrow critical gaps in competitiveness. labour markets , and fiscal governance. 

Geopolitical Factors 

The geopolitical context has accelerated the accession process for old countries. As Schimmelfennig (2024, p. 82) argues the EU’s recent enlargement policy represents a shift from “transformative enlargement “ focused on domestic reforms to “geopolitical enlargement “ focused on security and territorial consolidation. The war in Ukraine has revived enlargement momentum and created pressure for faster accession. The European Parliament (2025) reaffirmed its support for the EU’s  enlargement agenda endorsing the accession ambitions of several Western Balkans countries.

McAllister (2026) emphasized the geopolitical dimension stating that “a united continent is the strongest response to those who seek to divide and destabilize Europe.” However he also warned about external threats, noting that “ strong, eternal threats need polarization” and that “ Russia and Sophia have established media channels to achieve their goals” in Montenegro (McAllister, 2026).

Conclusion 

Montenegro and Albania have merged as the frontrunners of the Western Falcons on the path to EU membership. Both countries have made significant progress in meeting the Copenhagen criteria, but the journey revealed the complexities and challenges of EU enlargement.

Montenegro leads the pack with its advanced negotiation, progress, and demonstrated political commitment (European commission, 2025).  The country has closed 12 negotiation chapters, including the first from the fundamental cluster and aims to conclude all negotiations by end 2026 (Mirkovic, 2025). However, Montenegro faces assistance challenges in the rule of law, anticorruption and economic sustainability. The catering, tourism, dependent economy, and high public debt represent significant economic vulnerabilities (wiiw, 2025). The fragility of its democratic institutions and the need for concrete results in corruption protections concern (European commission, 2025) . External threats and political polarization particularly from pro Russian and pro Serbian media channels, pose additional risks (McAllister, 2026).

Albania has made rabbit progress in recent years, particularly in justice reform and a fight against organised crime (European commission, 2025). The country has opened 28th chapters within a year and aims to conclude negotiation by 2027. However, Albania struggles with political polarization, media, freedom, and corruption( European commission, 2025). 

Both countries benefit from the geopolitical momentum that has revitalized EU enlargement. The war in Ukraine has created pressure for faster accession. And both Montenegro and Albania have set ambitious targets for concluding negotiations (European commission, 2025). However, as the wiiw study (2025) warns, reforms must be “irreversibly anchored” and subject to tougher scrutiny to avoid the risk of “unpleasant surprises after accession.” McAllister (2026) echoed this concern, emphasizing that “ the adoption of the law is not enough, reforms must be implemented.” 

The lessons from previous enlargement are clear: the EU’s transformative power is strongest  during the succession process, and diminishes after membership is secured. As Anghel and Jones (2024, p. 5) argue, enlargement changes the experience of membership for all member states and requires work blocking scenario planning. For Montenegro and Albania, this means that sustainable reform and democratic consolidation continues beyond accession.

Ultimately, the integration of Montenegro and Albania into the EU represents not only a political imperative, but also a commitment democratic value and economic development success will depend on continued reform, political will and EU’s ability to maintain credible conditionality. Lessons learned from their succession processes will inform the future engagement of the union, including the integration of other western Balkan countries and the eastern partnership states. As Prime Minister Spajić (2025) stated, “Montenegro stands on the threshold of the historic goal of EU membership. Only by remaining united, focused, and consistent can we achieve this multi generational dream.”

References 

References

Anghel V & Jones E 'Three Lessons from the 2004 "Big Bang" Enlargement' (2024) 12 Politics and Governance https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.8358 

Emerson M, Blockmans S, Lazarevic M & Subotic S Balkan and Eastern European Comparisons: Building a New Momentum for the European Integration of the Balkan and Eastern European Associated States (CEPS Policy Contribution, 2021) https://www.ceps.eu/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Balkan-and-Eastern-European-Comparisons.pdf 

European Commission 2020 Communication on EU Enlargement Policy (COM(2020) 660 final, 2020) https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/ALL/?uri=COM:2020:660:FIN 

European Commission Communication on EU Enlargement Policy (COM(2025) 600 final, 2025) https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:52025DC0690 

European Parliament Resolution on the 2025 Enlargement Package (2025) https://www.europarl.europa.eu 

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Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) Another Round of EU Enlargement: What Are the Economic and Institutional Must-Haves for Candidate Countries to Make Accelerated Enlargement Possible? (wiiw Policy Note No 102, 2025) https://www.wiiw.ac.at/files/events/enlargement-must-haves-04-12-2025-landesmann-n-736.pdf 

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